Indian equity benchmarks managed
to settle a volatile session on positive note on Wednesday. The start of the
day was optimistic, supported with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) data
report showing that India's services exports rose by 10.4% to $18.24 billion in
August in the current financial year. The services exports or receipts were
$16.53 billion in the same month of 2018. It was at $19.08 billion in July this
year. Market participants got relief with the World Bank's statement that India
has halved its poverty rate since the 1990s and achieved a seven plus growth
rate over the last 15 years. It also said that India is both critical to the
success of global development efforts, including eliminating extreme poverty,
and as an influential leader for global goods. But, volatility emerged over the
markets during the session, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut
India's GDP growth projection for the year 2019 to 6.1%, which is 1.2% down
from its April projections and noted that the Indian economy is expected to
pick up the next year at 7.0 % in 2020. The street also got cautious as tax
officers expressed concerns over the faceless income tax assessment system initiated
by the Central Board of Direct Taxes, saying it will create procedural
difficulties and may hit revenue collections. However, indices managed to end
in green terrain, after Chief Economic Advisor K V Subramanian called upon the
industry to start making investments, stressing that the fundamentals of the
economy are very strong. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 92.90 points or 0.24%
to 38,598.99, while the CNX Nifty was up by 35.70 points or 0.31% to 11,464.00.
The US markets ended marginally
lower on Wednesday after US retail sales fell for the first time in seven
months in September and Meanwhile, an angry response from China to legislation
passed by the US House of Representatives in support of Hong Kong pro-democracy
protesters also cast doubt on prospects for the future of the trade deal
between the two countries announced last Friday. The Commerce Department said
retail sales fell by 0.3 percent in September after climbing by an upwardly
revised 0.6 percent in August. The drop came as a surprise to participants, who
had expected sales to rise by 0.3 percent compared to the 0.4 percent increase
originally reported for the previous month. The unexpected decrease in retail
sales was partly due to a notable pullback in sales by motor vehicle and parts
dealers, which slumped by 0.9 percent in September after spiking by 1.9 percent
in August. Excluding the pullback in auto sales, however, retail sales still
edged down by 0.1 percent in September after rising by a revised 0.2 percent in
August. Street had expected ex-auto sales to rise by 0.2 percent compared to
the unchanged reading originally reported for the previous month. However,
downside remained capped as the National Association of Home Builders released
a separate report showing homebuilder confidence unexpectedly climbed to its
highest level in well over a year in the month of October. The report said the
NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index jumped to 71 in October after inching up
to 68 in September. Street had expected the index to come in unchanged from the
previous month. With the unexpected increase, the housing market index rose for
the fourth straight month and reached its highest level since hitting a
matching reading in February of 2018.
Crude oil futures ended higher
after two days losing on Wednesday amid expectations Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will continue to cut output. OPEC and its
allies are committed to maintaining oil market stability beyond 2020. OPEC,
Russia and other oil producer allies will do whatever is possible within their
powers to ensure relative stability is sustained beyond 2020. However, upside
remain capped as US-China trade tensions linger and a critical Brexit deadline
is fast approaching. Traders were also a bit cautious as they looked ahead to
weekly inventory data. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release
its data Thursday morning. The reports are delayed by a day due to Columbus Day
holiday on Monday. Benchmark crude oil futures for November rose 55 cents or 1
percent to settle at $53.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
December Brent gained 68 cents or 1.2 percent to settle at $59.42 a barrel on
London's Intercontinental Exchange.
Snapping
two day falling streak, Indian rupee ended marginally higher against dollar on
Wednesday on selling of dollars by banks and exporters. Traders took support
with World Bank's report that India has halved its poverty rate since the 1990s
and achieved a seven plus growth rate over the last 15 years. India is both
critical to the success of global development efforts, including eliminating
extreme poverty, and as an influential leader for global goods. However, gains
remain capped as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut India's GDP growth
projection for the year 2019 to 6.1%, which is 1.2% down from its April
projections and noted that the Indian economy is expected to pick up the next
year at 7.0 % in 2020. On the global front, dollar headed towards a four-week
low against its rivals on Wednesday on concerns that elevated trade tensions
between Washington and Beijing will continue to weigh on the global growth
outlook. Finally, the rupee ended at 71.43, 11 paise stronger from its previous
close of 71.54 on Tuesday.
The
FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were
net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs
7729.38 crore against gross selling of Rs 5559.82 crore, while in the debt
segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 767.35 crore with gross sales of Rs
1215.45 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8.55
crore against gross selling of Rs 10.84 crore.
The US markets ended lower
Wednesday as economic data suggested consumers were holding back on spending in
the face of trade tensions and a global economic slowdown. Asian markets are
trading mixed on Thursday as soft US retail sales data raised concerns about
the health of the world's largest economy. Indian markets ended Wednesday's
volatile session in green territory for a fourth consecutive day, mainly on the
back of late hour buying. Today, the markets are likely to make a cautious
start amid mixed cues from Asian peers and rise in crude oil prices. Traders
will be concerned with a report that amidst the deepening slowdown across the
economy, commercial credit demand has contracted 2.6 percentage points to Rs
63.80 lakh crore in the June quarter over the three months to March period,
accompanied by a steep deterioration in asset quality. Also, there will be some
cautiousness with private report that foreign portfolio investor (FPI) interest
in Indian corporate bonds has been waning over the last few months, with their
investments hitting a 10-month low in October, as the perception on credit risk
of Indian companies continued to deteriorate because of slowing demand, rising
stress across sectors like real estate and NBFCs and a bearish view on the
rupee. However, some support may come later in the day with Finance minister
Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that more reforms are on the anvil this fiscal
to boost growth as fresh economic data and subdued corporate earnings point to
a deeper economic downturn. Traders may take note of Commerce Minister Piyush
Goyal's statement that India will maintain a slow & steady approach on the
issue of trade deals. Meanwhile, India's fuel demand slipped to its lowest in
over two years in September after a fall in diesel and industrial fuel
consumption negated the rise in petrol and LPG consumption. The Petroleum
Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) data showed that consumption of petroleum
products in September dropped to 16.01 million tonnes, its lowest since July
2017, from 16.06 million tonnes in the same month last year. Banking stocks
will be in focus with report that credit growth at Indian banks has dropped to
its lowest level in nearly two years, the latest Reserve Bank of India (RBI)
data shows, as slowing domestic consumption weighs on demand. There will be
some buzz in the telecom stocks with report that the Telecom Department (DoT)
is trying to get more spectrum free in the 3.3-3.6 Ghz band for 5G services.
There will be lots of earnings announcements too, to keep the markets in
action.
Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE Nifty
|
11,464.00
|
11,423.05
|
11,493.00
|
BSE Sensex
|
38,598.99
|
38,454.98
|
38,704.69
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
Yes Bank
|
1,888.00
|
41.05
|
39.88
|
42.13
|
Tata Motors
|
315.23
|
125.85
|
124.13
|
127.93
|
SBI
|
308.92
|
256.05
|
253.38
|
260.33
|
BPCL
|
203.81
|
512.40
|
502.47
|
521.17
|
ZEEL
|
192.14
|
259.65
|
250.77
|
268.02
|
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