Maintaining gaining momentum for
third straight session, Indian equity bourses ended Monday's trading session on
cheerful note. The markets started the session with marginal gains, as India's
factory output, as measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production
(IIP), slowed down to 20-month low of 0.1% in February, mainly due to
contraction in the manufacturing sector. It had grown by 6.9% in February 2018.
Separately, India's retail inflation, measured in Consumer Price Index (CPI),
continued rising trend for second straight month and increased marginally to
2.86% in March 2019 as compared to 2.57% in February 2019, on account of
increase in prices of food articles and fuel. But, key indices managed to add
gains during the session, aided by Former Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind
Panagariya's statement that the Modi government has achieved major successes in
social sector programmes like Ayushmaan Bharat, PM-Kisan and rural
electrification. Besides, he added that this government has made an unprecedented
progress in tackling corruption. Upward rally continued during second half of
the session, on the back of heavy buying coupled with positive cues from other
Asian markets. The street took support with a report stating that foreign
investors have pumped in a net sum of Rs 11,096 crore into the Indian capital
markets in April so far, driven by global and domestic factors. Foreign
portfolio investors (FPI) were net buyers for the previous two months as well,
infusing a net sum of Rs 11,182 crore in February and Rs 45,981 crore in March.
Adding more comfort among traders, a private report showed that financing deals
for Indian infrastructure projects are surging on market expectations that the
next government will come through with at least some of the spending that
politicians are promising now during a heated election campaign. The market
participants overlooked rising WPI inflation data report in late noon deals.
India's Wholesale price index (WPI) inflation has come in at 3.18% in the month
of March as compared to 2.93% (provisional) for the previous month. Finally,
the BSE Sensex gained 138.73 points or 0.36% to 38,905.84, while the CNX Nifty
was up by 46.90 points or 0.40% to 11,690.35.
The US markets ended marginally
lower on Monday after earnings from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc.
underwhelmed amid concerns over the banking sector's health. The drop by
Goldman Sachs comes after the company reported better than expected first
quarter earnings but revenues that missed expectations. Shares of Citigroup (C)
also closed just below the unchanged line even though the company reported
first quarter earnings that exceeded analyst estimates. Nonetheless, traders
seemed reluctant to make more significant moves ahead of the release of
quarterly results from a slew of other big-name companies in the coming days.
Bank of America (BAC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), IBM (IBM), Morgan Stanley
(MS), PepsiCo (PEP), and American Express (AXP) are among the companies due to
report their results this week. On the economic front, after reporting an
unexpected slowdown in the pace of growth in New York manufacturing activity in
the previous month, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a report
showing growth picked up somewhat in April but remained fairly subdued. The New
York Fed said its headline general business conditions index climbed to 10.1 in
April after falling to 3.7 in March, with a positive reading indicating growth
in regional manufacturing activity. Street had expected the index to rise to
6.0. The bigger than expected increase by the headline index came as the new
orders index rose to 7.5 in April from 3.0 in March. The shipments index also
inched up to 8.6 from 7.7. On the other hand, the report said the number of
employees index edged down to 11.9 in April from 13.8 in March, indicating
modestly slower job growth. Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 27.53 points
or 0.10 percent to 26384.77, Nasdaq declined 8.15 points or 0.10 percent to
7976.01 and S&P 500 was down by 1.83 points or 0.06 percent to 2905.58.
Crude oil futures ended lower on
Monday as a Russian official reportedly questioned his country's participation
in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)-led production
cut deal on concerns over market share. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov
said there is a dilemma. What should we do with OPEC: should we lose the
market, which is being occupied by the Americans, or quit the deal. He said such a move could drive the price of
oil to $40 a barrel or below. Besides, in a monthly report, the government
agency, the Energy Information Administration said crude-oil production from
seven major US shale plays is forecast to climb by 80,000 barrels a day in May
to 8.46 million barrels a day, from 8.38 million in April. Benchmark crude oil
futures for May dropped 49 cents or 0.8 percent to settle at $63.40 a barrel on
the New York Mercantile Exchange. June Brent crude declined 37 cents or 0.5
percent to settle at $71.18 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.
Extending weakness for the second day, Indian rupee
depreciated against dollar on Monday, on increased demand for the US currency
from importers. Traders remained concerned with data showing that India's
retail inflation saw a marginal rise of 2.86% in March on account of increase
in prices of food articles and fuel. Also, industrial growth fell to its lowest
in 20 months in February, barely rising from a year ago as manufacturing
contracted following muted consumer demand, and public investment slowed toward
the fiscal year-end. Cautiousness remained among the traders with data showing
that Wholesale price-based inflation rose for the second consecutive month to
3.18% in March on costlier food and fuel. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based
inflation was at 2.93% in February. On the global front, yen fell towards a
2019 low on Monday as a rally in global markets cut into demand for currencies
considered safe havens. Finally, the rupee ended at 69.42, 25 paise weaker from
its previous close of 69.17 on Friday.
The FIIs as per Monday's data
were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4008.23 crore against gross
selling of Rs 3402.63 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was
of Rs 179.70 crore with gross sales of Rs 1246.22 crore. Besides, in the hybrid
segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4.55 crore against gross selling of Rs 1.65
crore.
The US markets declined on
Monday, weighed by losses in financial stocks as earnings from Wall Street's
big banks Goldman Sachs and Citigroup failed to impress. Asian markets are
trading mixed on Tuesday as US-Japan trade talks kicked off and the Bank of
Japan chief flagged risks of increasing trade protectionism to the global
economic growth outlook. Indian markets extended their northward journey for
third straight session on Monday following firm global cues and buying in
blue-chip counters such as Tata Motors, TCS and Coal India. Today, the markets
are likely to make slightly positive start tracking optimistic monsoon forecast
and good trade data. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that
the country is likely to have near normal monsoon this year with a well
distributed rainfall which could be beneficial for the agriculture sector. It
added that the seasonal rainfall is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average
(LPA) with a model error of plus or minus 5%. It also said weak El Nino
conditions are likely to prevail during the monsoon season with reduced
intensity. Besides, the government data has showed that India's exports grew by
11% to $32.55 billion in March on account of higher growth in sectors including
pharma, chemicals and engineering. Imports rose by 1.44% to $43.44 billion during
the month. However, trade deficit narrows to $10.89 billion as compared to
$13.51 billion in the same month last year. Some support will also come with a
private report that the rise in banks' profitability, thanks to a steady
decline in dud assets, can give a 0.60% boost to Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
in fiscal 2020. Meanwhile, Finance minister Arun Jaitley has said fast economic
growth and rapid urbanisation would slash the number of people in extreme
poverty by 2021 and end it completely in the decade after that. However, there
may be some cautiousness amid subdued global cues. There will be some buzz in
the agriculture related stocks with report that the government has decided to
extend the duration of the New Urea Policy from April 1 this year till further
orders to ensure smooth supply of nutrients to farmers. The extension of the
policy would facilitate in continuation of operations of urea plants and ensure
regular supply of urea to the farmers. There will be some reaction in textile
industry stocks with report that India's cotton crop production may fall 7.87%
to 343 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) in the 2018-19 season, mainly due to drought
in many cotton-growing regions. There will be some earnings announcements too
to keep the markets buzzing.
Support and
Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE Nifty
|
11,690.35
|
11,657.53
|
11,713.88
|
BSE Sensex
|
38,905.84
|
38,798.42
|
38,994.92
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
Tata Motors
|
572.83
|
231.75
|
221.52
|
237.62
|
Infosys
|
315.75
|
727.50
|
716.28
|
735.03
|
Coal India
|
156.59
|
250.00
|
244.85
|
253.55
|
SBI
|
138.65
|
315.60
|
313.33
|
318.28
|
Yes Bank
|
135.09
|
265.50
|
263.57
|
268.67
|
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