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NSE Intra-day chart (09 December 2016)
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Market Commentary 12 December 2016
Markets to make a flat-to-cautious start

It turned out to be a lackadaisical performance from the benchmark indices on Friday as they traded in tight range and finished the session only with modest gains after showing huge rally in last session. Investors got some comfort with CBEC Chairman Najib Shah's statement that the GST Council may in future decide to reduce the tax slabs under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime after analyzing the revenue garnered and the compensation payouts to states. He said that any change in tax slab is possible after assessing the revenues and the effect of exemptions and deductions given in the new tax regime and analyzing it with the expenditure. Some support also came with the reports that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 698.86 crore on December 08, 2016.  Meanwhile, defending the ban on high-currency notes, the government told the Supreme Court that it is not sitting around doing nothing and all the problems will be over in another 10-15 days. On the concern note, oil marketing companies declined after the government announced 0.75% discount on digital purchases of petrol and diesel from state owned outlets, while Auto stocks slipped after the report that the total vehicle sales across categories witnessed a decline of 5.48% at 15.63 lakh units during the month of November 2016. Several pharma stocks also observed selling pressure on the report that the Indian pharmaceutical industry will grow at a slower pace due to sluggish growth in the US market, increased competition leading to price erosion in high single digits and generic adoption reaching saturation levels. On the global front, Asian equity markets made a mixed closing on Friday as investors turned jittery after the European Central Bank (ECB) trimmed the size of its asset purchase programme and also extended till end 2017. Back home, finally, the BSE Sensex gained 52.90 points or 0.20% to 26747.18, while the CNX Nifty added 14.90 points or 0.18% to 8,261.75.

Extending their northward journey for fifth day in a row, the US markets ended the Friday's session firmly in green. The strength on Wall Street reflected a continuation of the upward momentum seen following President-elect Donald Trump's surprise victory in last month's elections. Reflecting the optimism about Trump being in the White House, the University of Michigan released a report showing a much bigger than expected improvement in consumer sentiment in the month of December. The University of Michigan said the preliminary reading on its consumer sentiment index for December came in at 98.0 compared to the final November reading of 93.8. Nonetheless, trading activity was somewhat subdued as traders looked ahead to next week's Federal Reserve announcement. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by a quarter point, reflecting the first rate hike by the central bank in a year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 142.04 points or 0.72 percent to 19,756.85, Nasdaq gained 27.14 points or 0.50 percent to 5,444.50, while S&P 500 was up by 13.34 points or 0.59 percent to 2,259.53.

Crude oil futures surged on Friday despite signs of U.S. production surging in the next few months. Oil services firm Baker Hughes said that the U.S. total weekly active drilling-rig count skyrocketed by 27 to 624, the highest in almost a year. Trump has called for increased oil production and lessening of environmental regulations which restrict exploration and production in the US Traders remained optimistic about the conference of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producing nations, where there is a proposal afloat to link the production reductions of OPEC and other countries, like Russia which has indicated it will contemplate a cut of about 300,000 barrels a day. Benchmark crude oil futures for January delivery surged by $0.66 or 1.3 percent to $51.50 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for February delivery ended higher by $0.47 or 0.89 percent at $54.35 on the ICE.

Snapping three days winning streak, Indian rupee depreciated against dollar on Friday amid sustained foreign fund outflows. Sentiments remained dampened after the ECB said it would reduce its monthly asset purchases to EUR 60 billion from April, from the current level of EUR 80 billion. Also, dollar strengthened against other currencies overseas too weighed on the rupee sentiments. Meanwhile, Investors remained cautious ahead of key macro economic data - IIP due later in the day and CPI in the next week. Also, outcome of Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting that will start next week. On the global front, dollar rose broadly on Friday as US bond yields rose, while the euro sank after the European Central Bank's decision to extend its debt-buying programme, even as it cut the size of its purchases, disappointed currency bulls. Finally, the rupee ended at 67.41, 6 paise weaker from its previous close of 67.35 on Thursday.

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4352.68 crore against gross selling of Rs 3609.50 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 803.32 crore with gross sales of Rs 3204.37 crore.

The US markets continued their rally in a string of record-breaking trading days, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones industrial average and Nasdaq each closing higher every day in the week. Traders were eyeing key data, including reports on housing, inflation, consumer spending and manufacturing apart from the crucial FOMC meeting in the next week. The Asian markets have made a mixed start. The Indian markets despite some choppiness managed to extend the gaining streak in last session, ending modestly higher, today the start is likely to be cautious and all eyes will be on global development and Fed meeting, traders will first be reacting to report of Industrial production shrinking an annual 1.9% in October, worsening from a 0.7% rise in the previous month and 9.8 per cent growth in the year-ago month. Industrial production has contracted in four out of seven months so far this fiscal. In the April-October period, production declined 0.3 per cent compared with 4.8 per cent growth last year. However, traders may get some consolation with government data showing robust growth in November indirect tax collection. Net indirect tax collections grew 23.1 per cent in November from a year ago. Overall, net indirect tax mop-up was up 26.2 per cent in April-November from a year ago while net direct tax increased 15.1 per cent over this period. Total direct and indirect tax collections at the end of November stood at Rs 9.64 lakh crore, nearly 60 per cent of the budget target of Rs 16.26 lakh crore for FY17. Marketmen will also look for any developments from the 6th meeting of the Goods and Services Tax Council, which commenced on Sunday in the shadow of demonetization, seeking to finalise three legislations -- Central GST, Integrated GST and the Compensation law. There will be some scrip specific actions with the Competition Appellate Tribunal (COMPAT), in a series of orders sent back a case against DLF, set aside an order against Lupin and reduced penalty on three auto companies. PSU oil marketing companies too will be buzzing, as OPEC and non-OPEC producers on Saturday reached their first deal since 2001 to curtail oil output jointly and ease a global glut. 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

8,261.75

8244.15

8277.15

BSE Sensex

26747.18

26702.07

26798.02

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

SBI

160.04

266.65

261.23

269.63

ICICI Bank

159.39

268.45

264.37

271.17

Bank of Baroda

102.78

162.05

158.58

164.13

Hindalco

95.43

182.10

179.62

184.02

Tata Power

95.04

77.05

75.63

77.98

  • Mahindra & Mahindra will be undertaking scheduled maintenance shutdown at some of its Automotive and Tractor plants in December, 2016.
  • Maruti Suzuki India has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Ola to train aspiring drivers-partners.
  • Idea Cellular has launched two unlimited voice calling recharge packs.
  • Wipro has partnered with Microsoft Accelerator to provide startups with greater opportunities to innovate and grow their business.
  • Bajaj Auto has launched the Pulsar 220F at a price of Rs 91,201, ex-showroom Delhi and the new offering is now BS4 compliant.
News Analysis