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NSE Intra-day chart (11 July 2019)
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Market Commentary 12 July 2019
Markets to make a cautious start ahead of IIP, CPI data

 

Indian equity indices posted gains on Thursday's trading session, with both Sensex and Nifty closing higher by 266 and 84 points, respectively. It was a good start to markets, aided by Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that foreign direct investments (FDI) into the country grew 3 per cent to $6.95 billion in April. During 2018-19, the country recorded the highest-ever total FDI inflow of $64.38 billion, which was 6 per cent higher as compared to 2017-18.  Traders took encouragement with a report stating that India has the potential to become the world's future investment hub and is expected to be the fastest-growing market for investment professionals over the next decade. Key indices extended their gaining rally in the second half of the session, on account of firm cues from global markets. Domestic sentiments got a boost with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement the government is committed to continue the path of fiscal consolidation without compromising on public expenditure. Finance Minister also highlighted that promotion of economic growth will be on top of agenda. Market participants were also positive with CBDT Chairman Pramod Chandra Mody's statement that the government has re-calibrated and fixed the direct taxes collection target for this financial year at Rs 13.35 trillion, a task that is difficult, but achievable. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 266.07 points or 0.69% to 38,823.11, while the CNX Nifty was up by 84.00 points or 0.73% to 11,582.90.

 

The US markets ended mostly higher, with the Dow and S&P settling at an all-time highs, on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell left investors feeling fairly confident about the odds of an interest rate cut later this month. Powell testifying Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee and Thursday in front of the Senate Banking Committee gave investors more hope that a rate cut is coming. Some support also came in due to a 5.5 percent jump by UnitedHealth, which rallied along with other health insurers on reports that President Donald Trump is abandoning a plan to eliminate rebates from government drug plans. The proposal was the centerpiece of Trump's blueprint to lower drug costs but faced stiff resistance from pharmacy-benefit managers. On the economic front, first-time claims for US unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell in the week ended July 6, according to a report released by the Labor Department. The report said initial jobless claims dropped to 209,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level of 222,000. With the unexpected decrease, jobless claims dropped to their lowest level since hitting 193,000 in the week ended April 13. Besides, with a steep drop in gas prices offset by an increase in the cost of shelter, the Labor Department released a report showing an unexpected uptick in US consumer prices in the month of June. The Labor Department said its consumer price index inched up by 0.1% in June, matching the slight increase seen in May. The unexpected uptick in consumer prices came even though energy prices tumbled by 2.3% in June after falling by 0.6% in May. Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 227.88 points or 0.85 percent to 27088.08 and S&P 500 was up by 6.84 points or 0.23 percent to 2999.91, while Nasdaq declined 6.49 points or 0.08 percent to 8196.04.

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Thursday after Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest report has said that it expects world demand for its crude will decline next year, to an average 29.3 million barrels per day, down by around 1.3 mb/d from 2019. The report showed that production outside the group, particularly from the US, is still overwhelming for OPEC. However, downside remained capped as tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico cut oil output in the region by more than half. On Thursday, a total of roughly 53% of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and nearly 45% of natural-gas production were shut down as a precaution. Benchmark crude oil futures for August declined 23 cents or 0.4 percent to settle at $60.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. September Brent dropped 49 cents or 0.7 percent to settle at $66.52 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee gained ground against dollar and ended higher on Thursday, on persistent selling of the American currency by exporters.  Sentiments remained up-beat with Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that foreign direct investments (FDI) into the country grew 3 per cent to $6.95 billion in April. During 2018-19, the country recorded the highest-ever total FDI inflow of $64.38 billion, which is 6 per cent higher as compared to 2017-18. Besides, weakness of dollar in the overseas market coupled with strong gains in the local equity markets helped the domestic currency rebound. On the global front, dollar fell to a five-day low on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kept the door open for US interest rate cuts, though investors were wary of selling dollars aggressively until a policy review later this month. Finally, the rupee ended at 68.44, 14 paise stronger from its previous close of 68.58 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3829.60 crore against gross selling of Rs 4289.26 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 913.83 crore with gross sales of Rs 1428.85 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 80.29 crore against gross selling of Rs 75.27 crore.

 

The US markets ended mostly higher on Thursday on improved bets of an interest rate cut following Fed chief Jerome Powell's dovish remarks, while healthcare stocks were mixed after the Trump administration withdrew a rule that would kill rebates. Asian markets are trading mixed on Friday as data showed Singapore's economy shrinking much more than expected in the second quarter. Indian markets gained traction and ended higher on Thursday as possible interest rate cuts by the United States' Federal Reserve lifted sentiments across the Asian markets. Today, the markets are likely to make a cautious start ahead of macro-economic data and US-India trade talks beginning later in the day. Market-men will be eyeing on the macro economic data of industrial production for May and consumer price inflation for June to be released after the market hours. Besides, India and the US would meet on July 12 to discuss various trade and economic issues and strengthen bilateral relations. US President Donald Trump has been asking India to reduce customs duties on US products further. Investors will also looking for India's second largest software services firm Infosys' results for April-June quarter to be out later in the day. There will be some cautiousness with former finance minister P Chidambaram's statement that the Union Budget 2019-20 does not chalk out a clear roadmap to take India on the path of high economic growth and lacks bold steps and structural reforms. Meanwhile, a RBI showed that housing affordability has worsened in four years with Mumbai being the least affordable. However, some respite may come later in the day with report that as rainfall in the first 11 days of this month was 24% more than normal, the overall season's rain deficit came down to 12%, from 33% witnessed in June. The report said continuance of the current spell of showers for another week may help the farmers to complete the kharif sowing operations which were down by 27% until last week from the year-ago level. Besides, the US India Strategic and Partnership Forum (USISPF) in its report said that the bilateral trade between India and the US could reach $238 billion by 2025 from the current $143 billion given the present dynamics of the commercial engagement. There will be some buzz in the non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) stocks with report that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cancelled licences of 1,701 NBFCs in the year-ended March 31 for failing to meet minimum capital requirements. There will be some reaction in textile stocks with the Cotton Association further lowering its crop estimate by 3 lakh bales to 312 lakh bales for the 2018-19 season, mainly due to poor rainfalls in the South. There will be some important earnings announcements too to keep the markets buzzing.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

11,582.90

11,535.27

11,614.77

BSE Sensex

38,823.11

38,672.11

38,933.30

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Yes Bank

734.32

92.45

90.43

94.73

Tata Motors

241.00

156.80

152.20

159.55

SBI

200.48

363.20

358.80

365.80

ICICI Bank

165.35

363.20

381.03

389.13

Indiabulls Housing Finance

117.73

672.15

655.60

686.20

 

  • TCS strategic unit -- TCS iON has collaborated with AICTE to provide students with a custom curated digital learning course to equip them with career skills. 
  • L&T's construction arm -- L&T Construction has secured orders from prestigious clients across various Indian states for its varied businesses. 
  • Reliance Industries' telecom arm -- Jio has partnered with PUBG for the launch of PUBG Lite in India. 
  • Tata Motors Group's global wholesales in June 2019, including Jaguar Land Rover, were at 95,503 nos., lower by 5%, as compared to June 2018.
News Analysis