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NSE Intra-day chart (09 October 2017)
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Market Commentary 10 October 2017
Markets to make a flat-to-cautious start


Indian equity benchmarks ended the volatile day of trade with marginal gains on Monday, as traders remained on sidelines ahead of July-September quarter earnings, slated to be released this week. Soon after a cautious start, markets gained momentum and regained their crucial 10,000 (Nifty) and 31,900 (Sensex) levels, as traders took encouragement with the GST Council on Friday announcing a slew of decisions to reduce compliance burden, including the eventual setting up of an e-wallet for input tax credits for exporters, and the option for small businesses to file returns and pay taxes only once a quarter. The GST Council also reduced the tax rates on 27 items. Some support also came with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley stating that government's initiatives like Swachh Bharat, Goods and Services Tax (GST) and demonetisation are having desired impact, with the latter two resulting in increasing tax compliance and squeezing quantum of cash in the economy. Traders also took note of Revenue Secretary Hasmukh Adhia's statement that the government will clear pending GST refunds of exporters by November-end and over the next six months no tax will be levied on exports as the Council has decided to revert to the pre-GST era. However, traders booked profit at higher levels and markets ended the session marginally in green terrain. Gains remained capped on geopolitical concern after report emerged that North Korea to mark a major anniversary this week may do another missile test. Also, as though the GST breather given to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and exporters will address their liquidity issues, large corporates are disappointed as the GST Council didn't address many key issues such as anti-profiteering laws, transition credit issues and denial of certain input credit. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 32.67 points or 0.10% to 31,846.89, while the CNX Nifty was up by 9.05 points or 0.09% to 9,988.75.

 

The US closed lower on Monday, with the Nasdaq ending a nine-day rally as investors found few reasons to push shares deeper into record territory in a thinly traded session. The US bond market was closed in observance of Columbus Day, which contributed to the light trading action in equities. Global financial markets will focus on minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting, as investors look for more hints on the timing of the next US rate hike. Investors will also keep an eye out on a few US economic reports, with Friday's inflation data in the spotlight, to gauge how it will impact the Fed's view on monetary policy in the coming months. Meanwhile, a public feud between President Donald Trump and influential fellow Republican Bob Corker could narrow the path for a tax overhaul in the US Senate, where a Republican go-it-alone effort is already showing signs of disunity. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 12.6 points or 0.06 percent to 22,761.07, the Nasdaq dropped 10.45 points or 0.16 percent to 6,579.73, and the S&P 500 edged lower by 4.6 points or 0.18 percent to 2,544.73.

 

Crude oil futures made some recovery in the last session and ended modestly higher on Monday, after oil production platforms in the Gulf of Mexican began returning to service as Storm Nate had little impact on oil infrastructure while bullish comments from Opec lifted sentiment. More than 90% percent of crude oil production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico was shut in, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said on Sunday. Benchmark crude oil futures for November delivery ended higher by $0.29 or 0.5percent at $49.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for November delivery gained 22 cents to $55.84 a barrel on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee, after making a good start, gave away most of its gains to end slightly higher against dollar on Monday, on sustained dollar selling by exporters. Investors took some support with Union Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad's statement that the slowdown in the economic growth in Q1 of 2017-18 (April-June) is transitory and that will definitely pick-up pace in the next quarter as the macro fundamentals are strong. However, the rupee gains were, to some extent, capped due to strengthening in dollar against some other currencies overseas. On the global front, the dollar steadied close to its highest level in ten weeks on Monday, with strong US wages data at the end of last week giving investors confidence that the Federal Reserve will hike rates in December and again after that. Finally, the rupee ended at 65.35, 2 paise stronger from its previous close of 65.37 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3661.23 crore against gross selling of Rs 4615.08 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 4093.69 crore with gross sales of Rs 1064.34 crore.

 

The US markets extending their sluggishness made a modestly lower closing in the last session. The trade remained lacklusture as many traders were away from their desks due to the Columbus Day holiday. The Asian markets have made mostly a positive start, as investors assessed political developments in Washington before the start of earnings season and the release of minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting. The Indian markets after a choppy trade made a modestly positive close in last session. Today, the start is likely to be flat to mildly in green. There will be some cautiousness with RBI Governor Urjit Patel's statement that the economy was recovering, after growth slowed to a three-year low of 5.7 percent in the April-June quarter. But he said that fostering monetary conditions conducive to economic growth were a constant consideration for Indian policymakers, but would not take priority over achieving the central bank`s inflation target. There will be some buzz in the energy sector stocks, as the Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that the status of the energy sector in India was highly uneven and the scope for reform in many areas still exists. In an interaction here with oil and gas CEOs and experts from across the world, he welcomed the suggestion made for a comprehensive energy policy. Meanwhile, over 4,250 manufacturing units located in the north-eastern and Himalayan States are to get a Diwali gift from the Centre, as the government will provide a budgetary support of Rs 27,413 crore for 4,284 units over July 1, 2017 till March 31, 2027 to recompense them for losing their excise duty-exempt status post GST implementation from July 1.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9988.75

9960.22

10016.52

BSE Sensex

31846.89

31773.88

31927.76

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

ICICI Bank

204.78

271.75

269.90

274.95

Power Grid

120.63

200.95

198.78

203.98

SBI

80.09

256.85

254.53

258.88

Coal India

71.66

281.35

278.12

283.27

ITC

60.89

268.00

266.55

269.30

  • ONGC has received clearance from the CRZ for setting up a seawater desalination plant at its Uran unit in Raigad, Maharashtra at a cost of Rs 266.40 crore.
  • Tech Mahindra has become one of the tech partners of US-based medical devices company Terumo BCT.
  • Lupin has received final approval from the US health regulator to market generic Nadolol tablets, used for treatment of hypertension, in the American market.
  • Axis Bank has completed the acquisition of Freecharge for a cash consideration of Rs 373.27 crore, on a cash-free, debt-free basis.
News Analysis