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NSE Intra-day chart (09 May 2016)
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Market Commentary 10 May 2016
Markets to consolidate, may see some profit taking as well

 

Indian benchmark equity indices staged a blockbuster performance on the first day of the week by vehemently rallying close to two percentage points in the session and re-conquering their psychological levels. Sentiments got boosted after a weaker-than-expected US jobs report on Friday left some economists anticipating only one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve this year. Besides, rise in oil prices and appreciation in the Indian rupee against dollar too supported the markets sentiment, which moved higher on increased dollar selling by banks and exporters and due to capital inflows into the domestic equity market. Some support also came with a recent string of positive corporate results that raised tentative hopes about an improving domestic economy. On the global front, Asian markets ended mostly in red on Monday as investors turned jittery after China's trade contracted in April and US job growth came in weaker than expected. Back home, the local indices started the session on a sanguine note, with both the benchmarks crossing their respective psychological levels of 25500 (Sensex) and 7800 (Nifty) in very early trade. The bourses further capitalized on the momentum and spurted in noon trades on the back of broad based bottom fishing in undervalued stocks. The northbound journey only concluded with the close of the session helping the key gauges in recovering the ground lost in the week gone by. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 460.36 points or 1.82% to 25688.86, while the CNX Nifty rose 132.60 points or 1.71% to 7,866.05. 

 

The US market closed mostly higher on Monday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated as uncertainties in the oil weighed on Wall Street. Volatility in stocks emerged after the weekend dismissal of Saudi Arabia's powerful energy minister, Ali al-Naimi, sowed uncertainty about the country's energy policy. Crude-oil futures rose overnight, but turned sharply lower midmorning as the likelihood of a hoped-for production freeze from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries faded amid the reshuffling of Saudi Arabia's power players. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari signaled his support for the cautious and patient approach to rate hikes laid out by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, saying the current stance of monetary policy is about right. Meanwhile, Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, stated that the US economy's fundamentals are solid and growth this year should pick up to around 2.5 percent, but the Federal Reserve's current wait and see approach to monetary policy is appropriate. The Nasdaq gained by 14.05 points or 0.30 percent to 4,750.21, S&P 500 added 1.55 points or 0.08 percent to 2,058.69, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by 34.72 points or 0.20 percent to 17,705.91. 

 

Crude oil futures suffered sharp decline on Monday, erasing most of the gains of last week, on growing expectation that Canada's oil sands will be spared from approaching wildfires. Energy Traders reassessed the impact of severe wildfires throughout Western Canada, as authorities expect Alberta oil producers will experience some interruptions but that supplies will soon be back online. Crude prices also faced pressure with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report that short positions in oil increased by 1,500 versus bullish positions for the week ending on May 3. Benchmark crude oil futures for June delivery plunged by $1.19 or 2.71 percent to $43.47 a barrel after trading in a range of $43.36 and $45.94 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for June delivery closed at $43.62, down $1.75 or 3.86 percent on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee erased all its early gains and ended modestly weaker against dollar on Monday due to fresh demand for American currency from banks and importers, amid losses in Asian currency market. However, the fall in the domestic currency was restricted to some extent due to smart rally in the local equity market. On the global front, dollar was high against the yen on Monday after Japan's finance minister said that Tokyo is ready to interfere in the currency market if yen moves are volatile enough to hurt trade and the economy. Finally, the rupee ended at 66.58, 3 paise weaker from its previous close at 66.55 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 2869.74 crore against gross selling of Rs 2680.41 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 656.71 crore with gross sales of Rs 608.73 crore.            

 

The US markets made a mixed closing in last session, after a choppy trade as traders seemed reluctant to make any significant moves amid the lack of major US economic data. The Asian markets too have made a mixed start and while the Japanese market has surged due to weakness in yen, the Chinese market was still weak led by commodity producers amid a slump in oil and industrial metals. Though, its consumer-price inflation held at 2.3 percent in April, in line with expectations. The Indian markets in a broad based rally, surged the most in a month in the last session. Today, the start is likely to see some consolidation and markets after a sharp rally may see some profit taking too. Though, the overall trade is likely to be range bound lacking any major cues and traders will be eyeing important macro data to be announced later in the week for further cues. Some support can come with the report that the Centre's indirect tax mop-up rose 41 per cent in April led by high excise collections, signaling a pick-up in economic activity. A part of the collections was on account of additional revenue measures announced in the current year. There will be some buzz in the auto sector, as the industry body the Society for Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) has warned that if the government ends up imposing a 30% environment cess on purchase of diesel cars and SUVs as per the recent Supreme Court order, investment in India's auto sector will dry up. There will be lots of earnings announcements too, to keep the markets buzzing.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

7866.05

7788.52

7908.62

BSE Sensex

25688.86

25424.59

25831.41

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

ICICI Bank

172.79

225.30

220.93

227.83

SBI

183.37

188.70

186.03

190.38

Hindalco

138.64

91.70

90.50

93.40

Axis Bank

115.77

477.10

466.50

482.85

Adani Ports

102.28

196.75

194.60

198.65

 

  • Hindustan Unilever has posted a rise of 7.02% in its net profit at Rs 1089.59 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2016 as compared to Rs 1018.08 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.
  • Tata Motors' subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover is all set to launch smart phones and accessories by early 2017, to capture the burgeoning global Smartphone market.
  • Bharti Airtel has entered into a strategic partnership with Gulf Bridge International, with an aim to expand its direct reach to the Gulf.
  • In order to offer health insurance products, Bank of Baroda, has entered into partnership with two health insurance companies Max Bupa Health Insurance and Star Health & Allied Insurance.
  • Mahindra Automotive Australia, the Australian subsidiary of Mahindra & Mahindra, has launched the Automatic Transmission version of the New Age XUV500, a world class family SUV, in Australia.
News Analysis