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NSE Intra-day chart (06 October 2017)
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Market Commentary 09 October 2017
Markets to make a mildly positive start


Bulls made comeback on Dalal Street after a day's break, with key gauges garnering gains of around a percent on Friday. Sentiments remained up-beat since start, as traders took some encouragement with Commerce and Industry Minister Suresh Prabhu's statement that he is working closely with the finance ministry and other departments to firm up policy initiatives along with fiscal incentives to give a fillip to industrial growth and job creation. Markets continued with jubilation throughout the day after World Bank President Jim Yong Kim said that the Goods and Services Tax (GST) is going to have a hugely positive impact on the Indian economy. He added that the recent slowdown in India's economic growth is an aberration mainly due to the temporary disruptions in preparation for the GST, pointing out that it will get corrected in the coming months. Some support also came with Minister of Railways and Coal Piyush Goyal's statement that India is undergoing a change in the economic narrative and rebranding itself with technology driving growth.  Adding to the optimism, retirement fund body EPFO is mulling to give its subscribers an option to set aside a higher proportion of their provident fund money for equity asset class. EPFO has been raising the amount it invests in equities since 2015, when it started with 5% of the corpus. Its investment in FY16 was Rs 6,577 crore, rising to Rs 14,982 crore or 10% of its incremental corpus in the following year. Meanwhile, investors were eyeing the GST Council meet where it is expected to provide relief to businesses by tweaking rates and procedures. The package of measures expected to be taken up by the council may include an increase in the threshold limit for the composition scheme to Rs 1-1.5 crore from Rs 75 lakh to aid micro, small and medium enterprises, a more liberal exemption limit, and a lower compliance burden with quarterly rather than monthly filing apart from steps to boost exports. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 222.19 points or 0.70% to 31,814.22, while the CNX Nifty was up by 91.00 points or 0.92% to 9,979.70.

 

The US markets made a mixed closing on Friday, and the Dow and S&P 500 ended streak of records following the release of a report from the Labor Department showing an unexpected decrease in employment in the US in the month of September. Though despite the mixed performance on the day, the major averages all posted strong gains for the week. The report from the Labor Department said that non-farm payroll employment fell by 33,000 jobs in September after climbing by an upwardly revised 169,000 jobs in August. Economists had expected employment to rise by 90,000 jobs. The Labor Department said a sharp decline in employment in food services and drinking places and below-trend growth in some other industries likely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. However, the report showed the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2 percent in September from 4.4 percent in August. With the unexpected decrease, the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since hitting a matching rate in February of 2001. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 1.72 points or 0.01 percent to 22,773.67 and the S&P 500 edged lower by 2.74 points or 0.11 percent to 2,549.33, while the Nasdaq gained 4.82 points or 0.07 percent to 6,590.18.

 

Crude oil futures once again ended in red on Friday as investors braced for a potential disruption to some oil production in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Nate is expected to arrive as a Hurricane on Sunday, amid renewed oversupply concerns as the wide gap between Crude and Brent prices is expected to incentivize US producers to ramp up production and exports. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in Iraq too weighed down the sentiments, as the fallout over an independence referendum in Iraq's Kurdistan region threatens to disrupt supply. Benchmark crude oil futures for November delivery ended lower by $1.49 or 2.95 percent at $59.29 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for November delivery lost 2.23 percent to $55.70 a barrel on the ICE.

 

Piling on previous session's losses, Indian rupee weakened further against the American currency on Friday on heavy dollar demand from corporates and importers. This is the second consecutive session when the rupee is traded lower against dollar. Investors failed to get solace with Commerce and Industry Minister Suresh Prabhu's statement that he is working closely with the finance ministry and other departments to firm up policy initiatives along with fiscal incentives to give a fillip to industrial growth and job creation. Besides, dollar's gain against other currencies overseas put pressure on the rupee, but good going in the domestic equity market prevented the rupee from falling further. On the global front, dollar edged higher on Friday and is on track for its fourth consecutive week of gains as investors continued to cut their short bets against the greenback on a growing view that bond markets have underpriced the extent of US rate increases. Finally, the rupee ended at 65.37, 22 paise weaker from its previous close of 65.15 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3242.78 crore against gross selling of Rs 3922.74 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1167.83 crore with gross sales of Rs 525.42 crore.

 

The US markets made mostly a lower closing on mixed jobs data in the last session, though it showed a spike in hourly wages that bolstered the odds for tighter monetary policy, pushing the chances of a December hike to nearly 80 percent. The Asian markets have mostly made a positive start and the Chinese market were up returning from long holidays, though other indices in the region like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are closed for holidays. The Indian markets surged in last session showing a consistent trade since beginning as investors remained hopeful of some positive outcome from the GST Council meeting. Today, the start is likely to be in green though there will be some cautiousness too on geopolitical concern after report emerged that North Korea to mark a major anniversary this week may do another missile test. Also, as though the GST breather given to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and exporters will address their liquidity issues, large corporates are disappointed as the GST Council didn't address many key issues such as anti-profiteering laws, transition credit issues and denial of certain input credit. Meanwhile, Revenue Secretary Hasmukh Adhia has said that the government will clear pending GST refunds of exporters by November-end and over the next six months no tax will be levied on exports as the Council has decided to revert to the pre-GST era. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has said that government's initiatives like Swachh Bharat, Goods and Services Tax (GST) and demonetisation are having desired impact, the latter two resulting in increasing tax compliance and squeezing quantum of cash in the economy. There will be buzz in the oil & gas sector stocks, as the Prime Minister Narendra Modi will hold a high-profile meeting with CEOs of foreign and Indian companies, as the government seeks big-ticket investment in its vast, rapidly growing energy market.

 

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9,979.70

9927.75

10010.50

BSE Sensex

31814.22

31683.26

31894.73

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

ICICI Bank

254.48

271.95

270.18

274.08

NTPC

157.87

176.05

172.13

178.98

SBI

119.32

256.75

253.27

259.07

Axis Bank

113.43

503.35

500.73

506.48

Tata Steel

94.65

691.45

673.07

701.82

  • IndusInd Bank has tied-up with Vakrangee for Bharat Bill Payment System platform to deliver wide range of bill payment services from Vakrangee Kendra outlets.
  • Tata Steel has reported 18% rise in its saleable steel production to 5.98 MT in April-September FY18 compared to 5.06 MT in the same period last year.
  • Tata Motors' subsidiary -- Jaguar Land Rover has reported total retail sales of 65,097 vehicles in September, up 6.6% compared to September 2016.
  • Reliance Industries and Reliance Marcellus II, LLC, a subsidiary of Reliance Holding USA, Inc. have signed agreements to divest all of its interest in certain upstream assets in north-eastern and central Pennsylvania.
News Analysis