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NSE Intra-day chart (05 June 2017)
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Market Commentary 06 June 2017
Markets to make a mildly soft to cautious start


Indian stock markets, which appeared to be wandering on a directionless trajectory through the morning trades, witnessed some renewed buying interests in Consumer Durables and Realty counters during the noon session, which helped the equity indices to snap second straight session on a positive note. The gains were, however, capped as investors remained cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s policy meeting, which begins tomorrow. Market is hoping that RBI may review its current stance of neutral to accommodative considering the slowdown in economic activity and consolidation in current & future outlook in inflation. Furthermore, HSBC's latest report indicated India's economic growth is expected to remain flat at 7.1% in current fiscal as investment is still weak and government spending might not be as high given the fiscal consolidation. According to the global financial services major, the GDP growth momentum is slowing since mid-2016 and this trend is expected to continue going forward. Sentiments got a boost with the report that Services sector activity in India grew at the fastest pace in four months in May riding piggyback on higher work orders as companies inducted more people to cope with greater workloads. The Nikkei India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which tracks services sector output on a monthly basis, rose from 50.2 in April to 52.2 in May. Some support also came with World Bank report indicating that successful demonetization will help in raising revenues on sustained basis as more and more people will come under the tax net. During 2016-17, India generated additional tax revenues as unreported cash identified both through the amnesty scheme and demonetisation were brought under the tax net. Meanwhile, shares of jewellery companies rose sharply today, following the government's announcement of GST rates on gold. The GST Council on Saturday announced that the rate on gold and gold jewellery would be at 3%, while the import duty of 10%, which will be over and above the 3%, remains unchanged. Currently, tax on gold and jewellery is at 2% and the current GST rate is slightly higher at 3%, but lower than the 5% rate that was expected. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 36.20 points or 0.12% to 31309.49, while the CNX Nifty was up by 21.60 points or 0.22% to 9,675.10. 

 

The US markets closed lower on Monday, as investors grappled with a variety of geopolitical issues, such as terrorist attacks in London ahead of the UK election and the scheduled public testimony of fired Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey. On the economy front, the service-oriented companies where most Americans work grew at a slightly slower but still rapid pace in May. The Institute for Supply Management said its nonmanufacturing index fell 0.6 points to 56.9% in May. Meanwhile, factory orders dipped 0.2% in April. That matched the Econoday consensus forecast and was the first monthly decline after a four-month stretch of increases. March's 0.2% increase was revised up to a hefty 1.0% rise. For the year to date, orders are 4.4% higher than in the same period a year ago. Excluding transportation, which can be volatile, orders rose 0.1% during the month, and are 5.5% higher compared to the same period in 2016. The government said productivity of American companies and their employees was unchanged in the first three months of 2017 instead of declining at a 0.6% annual rate. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 22.25 points or 0.10 percent to 21,184.04, Nasdaq was down 10.12 points or 0.16 percent to 6,295.68, while S&P 500 edged lower by 2.97 points or 0.12 percent to 2,436.10.

 

Crude oil futures extended their fall on Monday, with Nymex crude sliding near $47 a barrel amid concerns that a rift between Middle East oil producers will threaten OPEC's supply quota plan. Saudi Arabia and other Arab states severed diplomatic ties with Qatar, fuelling concerns about a disruption to the global deal to curb the glut in supply. Neighbors accuse Doha of destabilizing the region by supporting militants and backing Iran. Benchmark crude oil futures for July delivery ended lower by $0.26 or 0.55 percent to $47.40 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for July delivery ended lower by 1 percent to $49.44 on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee ended stronger against dollar for the fourth straight day on Monday, on increased selling of the US currency by exporters and banks amid higher foreign fund inflows. Investors got support with a World Bank report stating that successful demonetisation will help in raising revenues on sustained basis as more and more people will come under the tax net. Some support also came with private report that the country's services sector activity increased at its fastest pace in four months in May led by a faster rise in new business inflows. The Nikkei/IHS Markit Services Purchasing Managers' Index rose to a seven-month high of 52.2 in May, from April's 50.2. However, gains were muted as investors remained cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's policy meeting, which begins tomorrow. On the global front, dollar somewhat drifted away from a seventh-month low against other currencies. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.36, 7 paise stronger from its previous close of 64.43 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4535.70 crore against gross selling of Rs 4422.33 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 3004.00 crore with gross sales of Rs 403.09 crore.

 

The US markets snapped their gaining streak and ended modestly lower in last session after a lackluster trade, as traders expressed some uncertainty about the near-term outlook for the markets following recent strength. The Asian markets have made mostly a lower start tailing the US counterparts, with investors opting for a note of caution following a seven-week surge for global stocks. Japanese market too was lower, as the yen rose to the highest level in more than a month. The Indian markets managed a modestly positive close in last session, coming off their weak opening. Today, the start is likely to be a bit cautious on muted global cues and traders attention will be now on the two-day policy review by RBI's monetary policy committee (MPC) starting today. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reviewed preparations for the rollout of the goods and services tax (GST) regime from July 1, and said it would be "a turning point" for the economy. He has asserted that the implementation of GST is the culmination of the concerted efforts of all stakeholders, including political parties, trade and industry bodies. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley too clearing the air on audit of the firm providing IT backbone for GST has said the Comptroller and Auditor General of India will audit the Goods and Services Tax Network (GSTN). Markets will be getting some support with a private report that India has surpassed China to secure the top position among 30 developing countries on ease of doing business. There will be some buzz in the IT sector on a report that top seven Indian-based outsourcing companies in the US received fewer H-1B visas in 2016 as compared to 2015, and as a group their numbers dropped 37 per cent.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9675.10

9648.13

9694.63

BSE Sensex

31309.49

31220.00

31377.20

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

Vedanta

103.83

229.40

226.68

232.63

ITC

94.82

317.45

314.42

319.37

ICICI Bank

89.38

319.75

318.05

321.55

SBI

79.17

287.25

286.08

289.08

Hindalco

77.26

197.10

195.13

199.43

  • SBI has received $625 million from the World Bank for financing 100 MW rooftop solar projects by private developers.
  • Maruti Suzuki is focusing on new technologies in order to cut emission per vehicle and enhance fuel efficiency in its future models.
  • Mahindra First Choice Wheels, a subsidiary of Mahindra & Mahindra has entered the two-wheeler segment and plans to open 50 outlets by the end of this fiscal.
  • NTPC has forayed into the new business segment of setting up charging stations for Electric Vehicles and has installed first such points at its offices in Delhi and Noida.
News Analysis