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NSE Intra-day chart (03 February 2016)
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Market Commentary 04 February 2016
Markets to get a positive start on supportive global cues


The carnage in Indian stock markets prolonged for yet another session, as the benchmarks continued to sway to the tune of depressing global developments and deposed another over a percentage point on Wednesday. The drop in oil prices to 12-year lows has sent shudders through world markets, helping wipe trillions of dollars off share valuations and even raising fears of recession. Besides, there were no positive surprises from the third quarter earnings on the domestic front, while in the overseas markets global oil majors have reported weak earnings. Depreciation in Indian rupee also weighed on the sentiments. The rupee again broke below the 68-mark by depreciating 28 paise to trade at 68.26 against the dollar in today's trade due to increased demand for the American unit from importers and banks. The sentiments were also under pressure on reports that Foreign Institutional Investors sold shares worth Rs 113.98 crore, while the Domestic Institutional Investors sold shares worth Rs 323.23 crore on February 02, 22016. Moreover, investors failed to get any sense of relief from the report that activity in India's services sector increased at its fastest pace in over a year and a half in January as demand accelerated, allowing firms to build up a much bigger backlog of orders. The Nikkei/Markit Services Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 54.3 in January from 53.6 in December, the seventh straight month above the 50-level that distinguishes growth from contraction. On the global front, Asian shares tumbled on Wednesday, European stocks followed a weak Asian session markets. Back home, Indian benchmarks started the session on a weak note mirroring losses in the global equities as oil prices continue to move south on growing supply glut. Thereafter, the indices traded in the small range for most part of the session, though some recovery emerged in early afternoon session on account of lower level buying, but the final hour selling washout that recover and took the indices for a ride to the lowest part of the session. Finally, the BSE Sensex slumped by 315.68 points or 1.29% to 24223.32, while the CNX Nifty lost 93.75 points or 1.26% to 7,361.80.

 

The US markets closed mostly higher on Wednesday, as a big jump in oil prices lifted the energy and materials sectors, and battered financials reversed ugly losses. A tug of war between the rallying oil prices and a flurry of weaker-than-expected economic data, which was stoking fears of a slowdown in the US economy, resulted in seesawing trade. On the economy front, private-sector employment gains increased in January but at a slower pace than in the prior month. Employers added 205,000 jobs in January. ADP tweaked December's gain to 267,000 from a prior estimate of 257,000. Overall job creation has remained fairly strong despite a slowdown in the pace of growth in the fourth quarter. However, companies in the US service sector such as retail, banking and health care grew in January at the slowest pace in almost two years, adding to a drumbeat of data suggesting the economy has softened. The Institute for Supply Management stated that its nonmanufacturing index fell to 53.5% from 55.8% in December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 183.12 points or 1.13 percent to 16,336.66, the S&P 500 was up by 9.50 points or 0.50 percent to 1,912.53 while the Nasdaq was down 12.71 points or 0.28 percent to 4,504.24.  

 

Crude oil futures made a smart bounce back and surged on Wednesday amid weakening dollar, as energy traders shrugged off a considerable build in U.S. crude futures in favor of growing support for an emergency OPEC meeting aimed at addressing longstanding concerns related to excessive supply. Meanwhile, Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that crude inventories rose by 7.8 million barrels for the week ended Jan. 29. Though, the US production fell slightly for the second consecutive week but remained above 9.2 million barrels per day. Benchmark crude oil futures for March delivery surged by $2.40 or 8.03 percent to $32.28 a barrel after trading in a range of $29.41 and $32.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for April delivery closed at $35.04, up $2.32 or 7.09 percent on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee breaching 68 level mark ended weaker against dollar on Wednesday due to demand for dollar from banks and importers amid capital outflows from the local equity market. Sentiments weakened further with Moody's Investors Service's report that RBI's target to bring down retail inflation at 5 per cent by March 2017 will face some risks from monsoon uncertainty and execution of seventh Pay Panel recommendations, while macro-economic factors will be critical for sustaining growth. Investors failed to get solace with the better-than-expected India's services activity data. Nikkei/Markit Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surged to 54.3 in January from December's 53.6, marking a seventh month above the 50-level that separates growth from contraction. On the global front, yen fell sharply against the dollar after the Bank of Japan set the country's first-ever negative interest rate and signaled that further cuts were possible. Finally, the rupee ended at 68.07, 9 paise weaker from its previous close of 67.98 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in equity while there were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4102.32 crore against gross selling of Rs 4168.29 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1255.17 crore with gross sales of Rs 1158.84 crore.     

 

The US markets made a mixed closing in a volatile last session, as traders digested the release of a mixed batch of U.S. economic data as well as a sharp jump by the price of crude oil. The Asian markets have made mostly a positive start as crude extended gains, however the Japanese market was in red as yen strengthened against dollar. The Indian markets deepening their plunge lost another over a percent in last session. Today, the start is likely to be in green and some recovery can be seen after the recent falls on supportive global cues. Also, as the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley amid global uncertainty has said that it is important for India to emerge out of the crisis stronger as it is on a much higher and stabler footing than other nations. Jaitley said that India is "relatively unimpacted" by some of the factors that have caused the global crisis. There is likely to be buzz in the cement, aluminium and steel stocks, as they will now be able to participate in coal block auction. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has laid down a new framework to make the coal available in a fair manner to the end-users through auction. Infra stocks too are likely to be in action, as the Union Cabinet on Wednesday cleared the proposal to allow railways to form joint venture (JV) companies with state governments to mobilise resources for speedy implementation of rail projects. Considering the huge funds required to execute the projects. Shipping stocks will be buzzing on reports that the Baltic Dry Index, the benchmark for dry bulk shipping freight, has fallen to as low as 300 points. There will be lots of important result announcements to keep the markets ticking.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

7361.80

7334.93

7404.03

BSE Sensex

24,223.32

24137.49

24359.21

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

Vedanta

243.79

61.65

59.97

63.72

SBI

241.32

166.05

163.60

168.15

ICICI Bank

214.48

204.05

201.47

207.72

Axis Bank

100.77

380.55

376.47

387.32

Tata Steel

77.92

224.00

219.00

231.45

 
  • Mahindra & Mahindra has completed the sale of its entire 71.19% stake in Swaraj Automotives for Rs 24.84 crore to b4S Solutions.
  • Idea Cellular has rolled out its high-speed 4G LTE services in Odisha, expanding its foot print in eight telecom circles in the country.
  • Tata Motors' subsidiary has launched its sports car Jaguar XE in the India with a petrol engine.
  • Hero MotoCorp, world's largest two-wheeler manufacturer, has unveiled its first in-house developed motorcycle, Splendor iSmart 110, at the 13th Auto Expo, Delhi.
  • HDFC Bank has emerged as the most valuable lender on the back of its strong retail book, is now throwing its weight behind automated loan processing to consolidate its position in the personal loans segment.
News Analysis