NSE Intra-day chart (01 January 2019) | | | Top Gainers | | | Top Losers | | | World Indices | | | Indices | | | FII Activity(Rs. Cr) | | |
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Market Commentary | | 02 January 2019 | |
Markets to make pessimistic start amid weakness in Asian peers
Indian equity benchmarks greeted
New Year with optimistic approach where the Sensex and Nifty reclaiming their
crucial psychological levels of 36,200 and 10,900, respectively. After cautious
start of the Tuesday's trading session, the key indices remained lackluster for
most part of the day, as the growth of eight core industries slowed to
sixteenth-month low of 3.5% in November 2018, as compared to 4.8% in October
2018, due to fall in output of crude oil and fertilisers. The market
participants got worried with policy advocacy body US-India Strategic
Partnership Forum (USISPF) saying that India's recent changes in e-commerce
foreign direct investment (FDI) rules show a lack of predictability in the
regulatory environment and could add to the long list of trade issues that the
country is trying to resolve with the United States. Some concerns also came
with Ministry of Commerce & Industry's report that some industry
associations including those relating to steel have expressed concerns on
imports under bilateral free trade agreements with Japan, Korea and ASEAN.
However, steel imports from these countries include high grade steel, which are
not manufactured domestically. However, in the last leg of the trade, the
markets managed to erase all of their losses and ended the session on positive
note, aided by the Finance Ministry's statement that in order to ensure that
the fiscal deficit remains within the target of 3.3% of the Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) for 2018-19, the government is closely monitoring the
macroeconomic conditions. The Ministry has directed ministries and departments
to meet their additional requirements of funds from savings and keep their
expenditure within the amount earmarked in the Budget for 2018-19. Trade turned
positive, also because of reports that India remained ahead of China to retain
the tag world's fastest growing large economy withstanding several ups and
downs, spike in oil prices and global trade war like situation during 2018.
Some relief also came with Sebi's data report showing that Indian companies raised
over Rs 29,300 crore by issuing non-convertible debentures (NCDs) to retail
investors in 2018 to meet their business requirements, representing a
three-fold surge compare to the preceding year. Investors took a note of a
report stating that the country's external debt fell by $19.3 billion, or 3.6
per cent, to $510.4 billion during the six-month period ended September, due to
a decrease in commercial borrowings, non-resident Indian (NRI) deposits and
valuation effect. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 186.24 points or 0.52% to
36,254.57, while the CNX Nifty was up by 47.55 points or 0.44% to 10,910.10.
The US markets remained closed on
Tuesday on account of New Year's Day holiday.
Indian rupee witnessed
appreciation on the first day of Calendar Year 2019, aided by the Finance
Ministry's statement that in order to ensure that the fiscal deficit remains
within the target of 3.3% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2018-19, the
government is closely monitoring the macroeconomic conditions. The Ministry has
directed ministries and departments to meet their additional requirements of
funds from savings and keep their expenditure within the amount earmarked in
the Budget for 2018-19. Some support also came with Sebi's data report showing
that Indian companies raised over Rs 29,300 crore by issuing non-convertible
debentures (NCDs) to retail investors in 2018 to meet their business
requirements, representing a three-fold surge compare to the preceding year.
Investors took a note of a report stating that the country's external debt fell
by $19.3 billion, or 3.6 per cent, to $510.4 billion during the six-month
period ended September, due to a decrease in commercial borrowings,
non-resident Indian (NRI) deposits and valuation effect. Traders shrugged off
report that the growth of eight core industries slowed to sixteenth-month low
of 3.5% in November 2018, as compared to 4.8% in October 2018, due to fall in
output of crude oil and fertilisers. Finally, the rupee ended at 69.43, 34
paise stronger from its previous close of 69.77 on Monday.
The FIIs as per Tuesday's data
were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 956.84 crore against gross
selling of Rs 1958.68 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was
of Rs 1352.95 crore with gross sales of Rs 149.35 crore. Besides, in the hybrid
segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.43 crore against gross selling of Rs 4.94
crore.
The US markets remain closed on
Tuesday on account of New Year holiday. Asian markets were trading mostly in
red on Wednesday as evidence of slowing Chinese growth weighed on investors
already reeling from the worst year for global equities since the financial
crisis. Erasing all of their initial losses, Indian markets ended the first
trading day of 2019 on optimistic note, thanks to a sharp recovery in
heavyweight financials in the last hour of trade. Today, the markets are likely
to make pessimistic start amid weakness in Asian peers. Investors will be
eyeing manufacturing PMI data for the month of December to be out later in the
day. There will be some cautiousness with the government once again missing the
target of garnering more than one lakh crore rupees from Goods and Services Tax
(GST) in the month of December, giving rise to concerns that the government may
not be able to contain the fiscal deficit to 3.2% of the GDP. The government
has collected Rs 94,726 crore from GST in the month of December. However, traders
may get some encouragement later in the day with a report that India remained
ahead of China to retain the tag world's fastest growing large economy
withstanding several ups and downs, spike in oil prices and global trade war
like situation during 2018. Indian economy's roller-coaster ride during the
year gone by was best captured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. In
the first quarter of 2018-19 ending June 30, it grew at an impressive 8.2%.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the government is in favour of
bringing construction related material in the 5% slab of GST, informed that
changes in the tax structure will continue as there is scope for improvement.
There will be buzz in the micro, small and medium enterprise (MSME) industry stocks
with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) allowing a one-time restructuring of
existing debt up to Rs 25 crore for the companies which have defaulted on
payment but the loans given to them have continued to be classified as standard
assets. The decision will help the MSMEs which are facing cash crunch in the
wake of demonetisation and GST implementation. There will be some action in
aviation industry stocks with report that jet fuel price was cut by a record
14.7% on the back of decline in international rates, making it cheaper than
both petrol and diesel. The price of Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) -- used to
power airplanes -- was slashed by Rs 9,990 per kilolitre, or 14.7 percent, to
Rs 58,060.97 per kl.
Support and
Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE Nifty
|
10,910.10
|
10,836.93
|
10,953.43
|
BSE Sensex
|
36,254.57
|
36,000.78
|
36,396.20
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close
(Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
Yes Bank
|
241.61
|
184.25
|
181.53
|
186.43
|
Axis Bank
|
121.79
|
627.30
|
622.73
|
631.03
|
SBI
|
118.37
|
299.60
|
295.40
|
302.25
|
Sun Pharmaceutical
Industries
|
84.87
|
433.55
|
429.20
|
438.35
|
ICICI Bank
|
77.60
|
363.75
|
358.50
|
366.90
|
Maruti Suzuki India has reported total sales of 128,338 units in December 2018, as compared 130,066 units in December 2017, registering fall of 1.3%. Mahindra & Mahindra's Auto Sector has sold 39,755 vehicles in December 2018 compared to 39,200 vehicles sold during December 2017. HDFC has increased its retail prime lending rate by 10 basis points, making housing loans costlier for new borrowers. Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone's stake in each of APTPL, ADLPG and MLPG has been diluted to 0.99%, pursuant to the allotment of further equity shares by these subsidiary companies.
News Analysis
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