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Market Commentary 01 January 2016
Markets to make a weak start of the year 2016


The Indian equity markets snapped the calendar year 2015 on a solid note with an optimism of a great year ahead. Revival in corporate earnings, a stable monsoon after two successive drought years and progress on tax reforms can be key domestic triggers for the markets in 2016. Today, after training in tight range near neutral line for most part of the session, the key gauges managed to gain some momentum and ended the session with the gain of over half a percent. Sentiments got some support with the report that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 152.20 crore on December 30, 2015. Besides, short-covering by speculators in view of December series expiry in the futures and options space also supported the upside. Markets also derived some encouragement with falling oil prices and ensuing mitigation of India's current account deficit. However, gains remained capped with the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde's statement that global economic growth will be 'disappointing' next year. She said the prospect of rising interest rates in the US and an economic slowdown in China were contributing to uncertainty and a higher risk of economic vulnerability worldwide. Furthermore, Finance minister Arun Jaitley said that subdued global economy and moderate private sector investment will continue to pose challenge in the next year. On the global front, Asian shares turned mixed on the final trading day of 2015, while many of them were not trading for the day. Back home, the markets got off to a positive start despite the mixed cues from the global peers. Investors remained cautious early in the day but sentiments improved as the day progressed. The bourse moved in a narrow range with a positive bias and touched their intraday lows in late morning trade. However, second half of the session saw the key gauges capitalize on the momentum and spurt to session's highest levels in dying hour. However, a mild profit booking in dying moments of trade ensured that the key indices shut shops off the intraday highs. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 157.51 points or 0.61% to 26117.54, while the CNX Nifty ended up by 50.10 points or 0.63% to 7,946.35.

 

The US markets closed lower on Thursday, ending the final trading day of 2015 with a whimper rather than a bang, as the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both snapped multiyear winning streaks. The minutes of the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be released in coming weeks, possibly giving clues on the timing of the next US interest-rate move. On the economy front, new applications for US unemployment benefits jumped by 20,000 to 287,000 in the seven days ended December 26. This is the largest weekly increase since February. Claims are at their highest level since the week of July 4. The average of new claims over the past month, meanwhile, rose by 4,500 to a seasonally adjusted 277,000. The four-week average smooths out sharp fluctuations in the more volatile weekly report and is seen as a more accurate predictor of labor-market trends. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 178.84 points or 1.02 percent to 17,425.03, the Nasdaq was down 58.44 points or 1.15 percent to 5,007.41 and the S&P 500 dropped 19.42 points or 0.94 percent to 2,043.94.

 

Crude oil futures recovering from the last session's steep fall, inched higher on Thursday, trimming brutal losses that saw prices drop to 6-year lows in December, but were still down for second year after a race to pump by Middle East crude producers and U.S. shale oil drillers created an unprecedented global glut. Benchmark crude oil futures for February delivery ended up by $ 0.44, or 1.2 percent to $37.04, after trading in a range of $36.22 and $37.79 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for February delivery closed at $36.76, up $0.30 on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee appreciated against dollar on Thursday on account of  dollar selling by banks and exporters. Sentiment remained up beat after Qatar agreed to lower gas prices for India. Additionally, smart rally in the local equity markets also added to the positive milieu of Indian currency. Investors overlooked Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that the subdued global economy and moderate private sector investment will continue to pose challenge in the next year. On the global front, euro declined on Thursday, as European shares made a soft start, tracking weakness in Chinese market, ahead of the New Year break. Finally, the rupee ended at 66.14, 25 paise stronger against its previous close of 66.39 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In the equity segment gross buying was of Rs 2093.56 crore against gross selling of Rs 2111.39 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 845.24 crore with gross sales of Rs 376.06 crore.          

  

The US markets turned lower on the last day of the year and major indices ended down by around a percent. The trading activity was relatively light and the sentiments were impacted by a Labor Department report showing a bigger than expected increase in initial jobless claims in the week ended December 26th. The Asian markets have once again made a mixed start, with most of the indices closed for trade. Meanwhile, China's first official indicator of the year signalled that manufacturing conditions recovered some lost ground in December. The Indian markets ended the year on a very optimistic note, gaining over half a percent despite volatility, traders went for short covering on the expiry day of the F&O series. Today, the start of the New Year is likely to be soft-to-cautious, while some of the Asian peers are still not trading the US markets weakness is likely to weigh on the sentiments. Traders will also be concerned with the Indian core sector growth contracting by 1.3% in November after expanding for six consecutive months, mainly dragged down by a sharp slowdown in electricity production and a contraction in cement and steel output. Also, there will be some concern with report that India's external debt rose 1.7% to $483.2 billion at the end of September from the level in March due to long-term liabilities, especially commercial borrowings and non-resident Indian deposits. The oil & gas and power stocks will be in action after Qatar nearly halved the price of gas it sells under a 25-year contract and waived a payment liability of Rs 12,000 crore arising from India's refusal to import the committed number of shipments in 2015. The PSU oil marketing companies too may see some action, as the Petrol price has been cut by 63 paise per litre while diesel rate was lowered by Rs 1.06 a litre.

 

Support and Resistance: CNX Nifty and BSE Sensex

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

7946.35

7906.48

7970.88

BSE Sensex

26117.54

25990.42

26196.14

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

SBI

115.58

224.45

223.45

226.00

Bank of Baroda

88.96

156.65

154.10

159.10

Hindalco

88.03

84.75

83.47

85.77

Panjab Natioanl Bank

81.69

115.70

114.63

117.28

Vedanta

80.1

90.40

89.48

91.88

 

  • Bharti Airtel has acquired the remaining balance paid up share capital i.e. 26 percent of Augere and with the said acquisition, Augere has become a wholly owned subsidiary of the company.
  • Tata Motors, one of India's largest manufacturers of automobile and commercial vehicles, is planning to assemble Automated Manual Transmission kits in India.
  • In order to revive its presence in the region, Maruti Suzuki, one of the leading car makers in India, is planning to commence exports of its new premium hatchback Baleno to the European Union.
  • Global auto parts major, Bosch has plans to suspend all production activity at its Bengaluru and Bidadi plants for two days from December 30 in order to adjust to the market demand.
  • Housing Development Finance Corporation has sold its 2.12 per cent stake in healthcare firm Indraprastha Medical Corporation through open market sale.
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