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NSE Intra-day chart (25 February 2010)
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Market Commentary 26 February 2010
Markets likely to make a flat to positive start on budget day

It was the fourth successive dull day of trade for the local equities on Thursday, quite unexpected for the market veterans as the markets' historical data shows that they remain extremely volatile ahead of the annual budget and that too if it is the futures and options (F&O) expiry day, the volatility touches its peak. Meanwhile, nothing much happened in the equities this time which indicates that the expectations are not too high from the Union Budget 2010-11, to be announced on February 26. The main indices witnessed flat opening of the day and slipped into the negative terrain within first one hour of trade tracking weakness in most of the regional peers and lower US index futures. The indices moved in a narrow range with negative bias till late afternoon trades. They flip-flopped during last hour of trade and finally ended flat. Volumes were higher as traders rolled over their positions from the current month F&O series to next month contracts. The Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee tabled the Economic Survey for 2009-10 in the Parliament. The survey recommended a gradual withdrawal of stimulus packages and projected 7.2% growth rate for the current fiscal and over 9% for the 2011-12. Capital goods, software and technology stocks hogged the limelight in trade while oil & gas, fast moving consumer goods and metal stocks witnessed subdued close.Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) slipped almost one and a half percent in trade. Hathway Cable & Datacom that made a debut on the exchanges, failed to make a splash and closed over 13% lower from its issue price of Rs 240 per share. Finally, the BSE Sensex shed 1.77 points or 0.01% to shut shop at 16,254.20 while the S&P CNX Nifty rose 1.15 points or 0.02% to end at 4859.75.

 

The US markets close with modest losses on Thursday, the major indices were able to pare most of their losses in the latter part of the trade but could not manage a close in green, the weak employment and durable goods data coupled with concerns about Greece's rising debt raised the worries of early economic recovery. An unexpected rise in first-time claims for unemployment insurance added to the sour mood that dominated trading early in the day. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for unemployment insurance rose by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 496,000. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 53.13 points, or 0.51%, to 10,321.03. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 2.30 points, or 0.21%, to 1,102.94. The Nasdaq composite index closed lower by marginal 1.68 points, or 0.08%, to 2,234.22.

 

Crude prices declined on Thursday on the worries of economic recovery. The weak reports of new orders for long-lasting US manufactured goods and rise in claims for unemployment insurance dampened the mood of the crude, also the dollar showed some strength in early trade and led the decline in crude prices. Crude futures for April delivery settled down $1.83, or 2.29 percent, at $78.17 a barrel after trading in a range of $77.05 to $80.32 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, April Brent crude settled down $1.80, or 2.31 percent, at $76.29 a barrel.

 

The Indian rupee declined further on Thursday tracking the fall in local equity markets and some strength in dollar. The domestic currency started flat as the regional markets were trading mixed and when the domestic markets turned choppy after a flat start the rupee followed the trend. On the same time the dollar turned stronger against other major currencies and the month-end demand from importers for the dollar too weighed on the rupee sentiment. Finally the rupee closed at 46.41, 9 paise lower compared to its Wednesday's close of 46.32/33.

 

The FII on Thursday were the net buyers in both equity as well as debt segments. In equity segment the gross buying was of Rs 2402.70 crore against gross sell of Rs 1786.90 crore, while in the debt segment the gross purchase was of Rs 320.70 crore with gross sales of Rs 272.70 crore.

 

The US markets pared their early losses in last hours but could not manage a close of green on Thursday, the worries of Greece debt crisis and the domestic economic recovery was still in the minds of investors. The Asian markets have made a mixed start and few of the indices are trading in red. The domestic markets unexpectedly closed flat in previous session despite the F&O expiry, it seems the markets have stored the volatility for today, the big ‘budget day' and the indices can swing in either direction as the Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee proceeds with the Union Budget for the fiscal 2011.

 

Support and Resistance: S&P CNX Nifty and BSE Sensex

        Index

Previous close

      Support

     Resistance

  S&P CNX Nifty

4859.75

4836.85

4881.40

  BSE Sensex

16254.20

16171.11

16333.31

 

                                                             Nifty Top volumes

Stock

    Volume

    (in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

Unitech

396.41

70.40

69.28

71.63

Suzlon Energy

150.25

68.40

67.80

69.45

      JP Associates

107.23

129.35

127.35

132.65

         Hindalco

106.30

153.35

151.32

156.17

DLF

89.52

289.50

286.50

293.20

  • Tata Motors has reported that its Jaguar Land Rover unit has received a 340 million pound loan from the European Investment Bank.
  • DLF has reported that it has sold more than 1,200 units of the Panchkula Valley project in less than a week of opening sales.
  • Ranbaxy Laboratories has posted a net profit of Rs 488.23 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2009 against a net loss of Rs 819.02 crore in same quarter last year.
  • Bajaj Auto's promoters have sold more than 10 lakh shares in the company to Bajaj Holdings & Investment for a total consideration of around Rs 180.45 crore.
  • L&T and state-owned power generating company KPCL have signed a joint venture agreement for the 1,600 MW thermal power project at Godhna in Chhattisgarh.
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